Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 0.828933 0.951493 1.082078 1.231149 1.396177 1.572845 1.775833
2025-03-02 0.611779 0.768975 0.948311 1.166437 1.422877 1.713073 2.064493
2025-03-09 0.481320 0.660468 0.878534 1.159679 1.508416 1.922525 2.446806
2025-03-16 0.373616 0.560987 0.804447 1.136725 1.570437 2.108959 2.818806
2025-03-23 0.310313 0.507751 0.780464 1.172455 1.707754 2.398623 3.341038
2025-03-30 0.237048 0.426769 0.706884 1.132225 1.740822 2.557627 3.710411
2025-04-06 0.186605 0.369416 0.657410 1.117991 1.805988 2.762559 4.154024
2025-04-13 0.144502 0.316060 0.604946 1.091511 1.849475 2.939552 4.571001
2025-04-20 0.118948 0.285427 0.583267 1.108441 1.956822 3.212520 5.137251
2025-04-27 0.095555 0.252963 0.552842 1.106693 2.034190 3.446001 5.660325
2025-05-04 0.079301 0.230648 0.536469 1.125724 2.144854 3.735002 6.279542
2025-05-11 0.065292 0.209256 0.517956 1.138087 2.244598 4.012303 6.894995
2025-05-18 0.049645 0.179599 0.479143 1.111376 2.281141 4.201109 7.399959
2025-05-25 0.035581 0.148238 0.430002 1.057840 2.265554 4.305199 7.780297
2025-06-01 0.027775 0.131226 0.408849 1.056220 2.341932 4.564018 8.418294
2025-06-08 0.020861 0.113493 0.381848 1.038408 2.386290 4.771496 8.984360
2025-06-15 0.017479 0.106475 0.380099 1.074393 2.535384 5.166120 9.874544
2025-06-22 0.012467 0.089752 0.348424 1.038916 2.541822 5.312397 10.359777
2025-06-29 0.009278 0.078389 0.328508 1.027167 2.593631 5.540828 10.992350
2025-07-06 0.006619 0.067078 0.305318 1.003576 2.618210 5.720332 11.548139
2025-07-13 0.005233 0.061547 0.298804 1.020301 2.727973 6.060528 12.393590
2025-07-20 0.003909 0.054823 0.286238 1.019346 2.799219 6.331939 13.128835
2025-07-27 0.003073 0.050570 0.281196 1.037696 2.914026 6.690979 14.032360